The first of many? The Yankees made headlines on Monday afternoon by trading for lefty James Paxton of the Seattle Mariners. Paxton, 30, worked to a 3.76 ERA in 28 games pitched in 2018. In return, the Yankees send their #1 prospect according to Baseball America, Justus Sheffield, right handed pitcher Erik Swanson, ranked 22nd by Baseball America, and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams.
What does this move mean for the Yankees?
This was a win-now move made by a win-now team. The Yankees won 100 games last year and going into this offseason, it was apparent that they needed starting pitching. Just last week Cashman was quoted as saying he wanted “2 elite pitchers.” Check one off that list now. Paxton immediately slides into the #2 or #3 spot in the rotation. Paxton has been the unquestioned ace of the Mariners for the last two seasons, pitching to a sub four ERA, and striking out over a batter per inning pitched. There are unquestionably red flags that go along with “the Big Maple.” He has never pitched more than 161 innings. He has never pitched in big, meaningful games (sorry M’s fans). However, Paxton was the right move for a team that is trying to win now. Sign me up for lefties that strike people out, and are young and controllable. Paxton can help the Yankees now. In terms of Sheffield, Swanson, and Thompson-Williams, the players the Yankees gave up, it is clear that the Yankees weren’t willing to go into Spring Training with Sheffield in the rotation. Sheffield projects as a middle, to higher end of the rotation arm, or exactly what Paxton is already. With Swanson and Thompson-Williams, time will tell who won this trade. This trade hurts for the Yankees because fans have watched Sheffield move through the ranks. However, when you’re acquiring big time talent, it should hurt a little.
What this means for the Mariners?
Tear it down, tear it down, tear it all down. The Seattle Mariners essentially threw up the white flag on Monday. You don’t trade your best pitcher if you’re trying to compete. With Nelson Cruz as a free agent, and Robinson Cano’s albatross of a contract, it was going to be hard for the Mariners to improve enough to compete in the West. The Mariners gain a controllable, young, lefty starter that has the chance to be just as good, or better than Paxton. Sheffield does come with risks though. He was unimpressive in his brief stint with the Yankees in September. However, in Triple A, Sheffield was impressive, but scouts worry about his control problems. Still, when you acquire a top 100 prospect for a guy who wasn’t going to help you compete in 2019, the deal can’t be that bad, right?
What happens next?
I would guess the Mariners start a fire sale. With Cruz not returning, I would look for them to try and move Dee Gordon and Robinson Cano. An interesting tidbit from this trade was that the Mariners were unwilling to include Jean Segura in this move. They obviously look at him as the shortstop of the future. Other than Segura, I’m sure we will see quite a few more Mariner trades. Does a bad contract trade of Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury make sense? Maybe in fantasy baseball, but it is something to think about. For the Yankees, this move, and all future moves, will be about making the 2019 Yankees a championship caliber team. Do they go out and try to pry a Cory Kluber or Carlos Carassco away from the Indians? Or do they turn their attention to the free agency market with JA Happ or Patrick Corbin? Do they go all-in and bring Bryce Harper or Manny Machado to the Bronx? I think it is telling that the Yankees wanted Jean Segura in this trade. That tells me that the Yankees aren’t thinking small in terms of their shortstop replacement. Brian Cashman is going big, and that should excite and energize the Yankee fan base. Time will tell, but while this may be a “big move,” it is not going to be the final move for the Yanks.
