Many believe the NL East will be the toughest division in baseball this year. As I was going through the projections, I certainly felt the same way; 4 of the 5 teams can finish anywhere 1 through 4 but here we go:
Braves 94-68, NL East champions
Mets 89-73, 2nd Wild Card
Phillies 86-76
Nationals 84-78
Marlins 62-100
It’s really tough picking a division winner here, but I gotta go with the defending NL East champion, Atlanta Braves. Sure, they lost Donaldson but they still have Freddie Freeman, the best 1B in baseball, the young star, Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies and acquired OF Marcel Ozuna on a one year deal. He’s looking to have a big “prove himself” year since he had the chance to sign a multi-year contract, but chose to bet on himself with one year in ATL. He’s going to be an X-factor for the Braves this year and key to their attempt to repeat as division champs. They also have young prospect Austin Riley, who’s expected to take over the hot corner. Probably easy to say he can’t replace Donaldson’s performance, but him and Ozuna together can come pretty close. Another offensive acquisition was C Travis d’Arnaud, who found life in Tampa Bay last year after being released by the Mets and then playing just one game for the Dodgers.
On the mound, they have a young Cy Young hopeful in Mike Soroka. The 22 year old had a phenomenal year last year, pitching to a 2.68 ERA with 142 strikeouts in 29 games; good enough to finish 2nd in NL Rookie of the Year voting. He will be the ace of that staff, followed by newly signed veteran Cole Hamels, MIke Foltynewicz and Max Fried. The Braves have won two consecutive division titles, both with very similar teams. Until they prove otherwise, it’s tough to choose against them.
As a Mets fan, all I want is for my team to be competitive for a full season. The Mets tend to have one short amazing stretch at the start, an abysmal month long stretch in the middle and finish strong at the end. I’m hoping this year they can be consistent all year long and assuming they do, I have them as the 2nd Wild Card team. They have the pieces on all phases. Offensively, they have the reigning Rookie of the Year in Alonso, an All Star in McNeil, former All Stars in Ramos and Conforto, and young bats in JD Davis, Dom Smith, Nimmo and Rosario. Cano had a very down 2019, but then again he is entering his age 37 season so it’s hard to rely on him as much as the Yankees did years ago. The biggest key here will be the return of Yoenis Cespedes, who again is in a contract year. From what we’ve seen on his social media, he’s hungry for a big year. Let’s hope he can end his Mets residency as well as he began it in 2015.
As far as the pitching, the Mets have the best pitcher in the game right now in back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. We know what he’s gonna do, but it’s what comes after him that worries Mets fans. They have the potential with Syndergaard, Matz, and Stroman, as well as signing both Michael Wacha and former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello to one year deals. The one thing analysts and fans have said was that if all starting pitchers can be on the same page at the same time, the Mets are the team to beat. That happened the second half of last year. Let’s see if they can stay healthy and be consistent in 2020. Along with the rotation, the bullpen is expected to be one of the best in baseball. Lugo, Diaz (who needs a BIG bounce back year), Familia, Wilson and newly signed Dellin Betances. I hope that this is a year where the Mets can finally figure it out for one full season, but it will be tough in this division
Coming up third and just shy of a playoff spot is the Phillies. With the leadership and fire that new manager Joe Girardi will bring to the clubhouse, I can see Philadelphia living up to the potential many thought was there after last year’s signing of Bryce Harper. Along with Harper, the offense still has Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura, Bruce and a healthy McCutchen. Let’s also not forget they have Didi Gregorius, who signed a one year deal hoping to prove himself after missing half of 2019 due to injury. If he can replicate even half of how well he did with the Yankees, the Phillies have a chance to make it back to the postseason, but it’s gonna be tough given how good the division is.
We know Philly has the offense; the question iscan the starting pitching be good enough to compete? Question marks were there last year and they were there heading into this offseason. They answered that question with the signing of Zack Wheeler, who after a few injury plagued years with the Mets, finally figured it out over the last two seasons and had a career year in 2019, his contract year. He will be the number 2 behind Aaron Nola, who had a stellar 2018 but digressed slightly in 2019. Not to say he had a bad year; 3.87 ERA with 229 strikeouts and a 1.265 WHIP. That’s still solid production from your ace and he’s only getting better. After the top 2, the rotation falls off a bit. Arrieta is not the same guy he was in Chicago and Eflin, Velasquez and Pivetta are decent back end guys but have had troubles. But they are all still young. If they can figure it out, look out. The Mets and Phillies are going to be neck and neck all year, but I’ll give the Mets the edge due to their bullpen.
I know the Nationals are the defending World Series champions, but I can’t see them repeating. Sure, they still have the young stars in Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Victor Robles along with veterans Asdrubel Cabrera, Kurt Suzuki, Yan Gomes and Adam Eaton, but they lost their biggest and best player in Anthony Rendon this offseason. After not resigning Harper, GM Mike Rizzo needed to reinvest that money into resigning Rendon but couldn’t hold onto him. I think Washington can still produce offensively, but losing your biggest bat hurts. Now, you just hope Soto and Turner continue to grow into young superstars.
Although they lost Rendon, they did resign Stephen Strasburg, as they should have. Strasburg has been as consistent as one could ask and had a career year in 2019. That helped him get a 7 year/$245 million deal. Let’s not forget they also have the psycho and super competitive Max Scherzer, who still remains one of the best pitchers in the league. Scherzer still remains the ace of the Washington staff. Rounding out the championship rotation is Corbin, Sanchez and Ross. Overall, with these four top teams, throw a dart at the board and go with whatever it hits. I could be very wrong with these picks, but it’s going to be a very close race in the NL East and I look forward to some good inter-division games
The one certainty we know about this division is the Marlins are expected to finish last, yet again. However, they did add some veteran pieces that will help. Guys like Jonathan Villar, Jesus Aguilar, Francisco Cervelli and Corey Dickerson to complement the young guys like Lewis Brinson, Brian Anderson, Jorge Alfaro and Isan Diaz. They also have a few young arms who I can see blossoming into quite valuable weapons for Derek Jeter’s rebuild. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ lone All Star last year, is the ace. After him, they have Caleb Smith and Jordan Yamamoto. Also note that both Alcantara and Yamamoto are just 23 years old. With the opportunity they have to be frontline big league starters in Miami, keep an eye on them to put up decent, if not impressive, numbers going forward. The Marlins finished 57-105 in 2019, but with the veteran bats they added, I can see them pushing out a few more wins in 2020. Nothing significant in terms of a playoff push, but it could be another step closer to competitive baseball in Little Havana.
