The off the court drama filled NBA season is finally coming to a close with the start of the NBA Finals tonight. There is virtually no surprise that the Warriors are representing the West, despite me predicting that they would lose to the Rockets when I was on the Landi Lodge. From the East, the Toronto Raptors are making their first NBA Finals appearance in franchise history. Do the Raptors have a chance to dethrone the Golden State Warriors? Yes. Will they succeed?
Kawhi Leonard has been historically great this post season and has been enough for the Raptors to get to this point. To be doing what he’s doing with a bad quadricep is truly remarkable. Need him to score 35 points? No problem. Need him to crash the glass? No problem. Need him to facilitate the offense? No problem. Need him to shut down the other team’s best player? No problem. Absolutely incredible. Needless to say, he is not the player the Raptors have to be concerned about showing up in the series, however, they do have to worry about virtually everyone else on their roster. Danny Green has basically played himself out of the rotation with his shooting slump. Green has plenty of finals experience through his years with the Spurs as well as just general experience playing the Warriors, most notably Klay Thompson who he usually guards. Green is going to have to get serious minutes in this series in my opinion, so the Raptors cannot afford for him to be a zero on offense. Kyle Lowry is another starter that will need to step up and not be stage fright. The problem I see with Lowry is I don’t know exactly who he should guard, which in part comes from my concern about having Kawhi guarding Curry all series. I don’t think Lowry is quick enough or long enough to chase around Curry and bother his shot consistently; but I definitely do not want to have Leonard using all that energy chasing Curry and still be relied on to carry the offense. Aside from those three, Gasol and Ibaka will need to be dominant on the glass and Siakam needs to hit a shot consistently. The bench will also have to own the minutes in which the Warriors and Raptors lineups consists mostly of the benches. And even then, it just may not be enough.
They probably will not admit it publicly, but I do think the Warriors are a little nervous about not having home court advantage in this series. I don’t think they would have cared about playing a possible game 7 in Milwaukee, but Toronto seems and sounds like a different animal. This is going to sound like a dumb place to start, but I think something we have to watch out for in this series is the presence Drake has in the crowd. Drake is not going to be quiet; I have zero doubt he will be chirping at Curry (bad idea) and he will definitely be chirping at Draymond Green. Chirping at Green may not be a bad idea if you could get him mad enough that he does something stupid and gets ejected or worse. You’re lying to yourself if you say that you can’t see that happening. Some people in the media say that this series all comes down to when Kevin Durant comes back, which is why it is critical for the Raptors to protect home court the first two games; a split is the absolute worst they can do if they stand a chance. While I do agree that if Kevin Durant comes back, this series is over quick, fast, and in a hurry; I think that the Warriors’ players are excited for the idea of playing this series without him and to continue proving that they are just as dominant with him sidelined. I am interested to see what the Warriors do with Leonard because they would obviously put Durant on him if he was healthy. Do they go with Iguodala? Do they go with Klay? Do they go with Draymond? I don’t know what they are going to do, but if I had to guess I would say that Klay is going to be the primary defender on him; at least when the game is in crunch time. Even then, how do you defend him? What is making him so difficult to play against this post season is that he is initiating the offense. The Bucks and Magic had some success when they blitzed him and tried to trap him at half court, but even that is dangerous because he can just dish it off to Gasol at the top of the key who is one of the smartest and best passing big men in the game. There is not a simple answer for him, but Kerr and the Warriors are too good to let one man beat them. I didn’t even mention Boogie Cousins, so I’ll just say I don’t expect him back and if he does come back, I don’t think he will be that effective anyway.
This will be the last series in Oracle Arena for the Warriors as they are moving to their new arena next season. As tired as some are of seeing the Warriors continue to win, it would be pretty cool to see them close out their arena in style with a three peat. The only way that happens is if the Warriors win in six games, otherwise they would close out the Raptors in Toronto; so, I’ll go Warriors in 6. Bonus prediction: Draymond Green will be the Finals MVP.
