Free agency and contract negotiations leaking onto social media always causes a stir amongst fans. These negotiations came front and center Monday when the world found out the offer Dak Prescott, quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, turned down from his team. It was rumored that the offer was worth $30 million a season! Dak said, “Nah, I want 40.” With that response, Twitter, group chats, in person conversations, went absolutely bonkers.
It’s no secret quarterback is the most important position in all of professional sports. For the most part, the top tier quarterbacks get paid an annual salary that reflects that importance. The problem here is that no one thinks Dak is worth even close to $40 million, in fact, some don’t even think he is worth $30 million. If Dak were to make $40 million a season, he would be the highest paid quarterback/player in football. Something I always recommend doing when you don’t know if someone should be one of the highest paid players in a sport, is to ask someone who doesn’t really follow sports; if they know the player’s name that player will most likely be worth it. Even though Prescott does play on “America’s team,” I’m still willing to bet that most of those people I just mentioned won’t know who he is. So, take that opinion as you will. What about the opinion Dak has of himself? Why does he think he deserves $40 million a year?
The Points Added statistic is essentially the equivalent to WAR popularized by the MLB, it measures the number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season compared to the average league quarterback. The statistic does take total QBR and the number of games the quarterback played. So, since we know WAR is a statistic that gets players paid in baseball, it would be likely to assume that Dak is pretty high in the points added ranking, right? Wrong! Dak’s 2018 season ranked 16th, so essentially middle of the pack. Well, maybe there is another key stat that tells Dak he is elite. Let’s look at Total EPA. Total EPA basically puts a numerical value on your total clutch rating, taking pass plays, rush attempts, and penalties drawn/taken into account. In 2018, Prescott ranked 12th with 71.7. Essentially, his is in the upper part of the middle of the pack. You may be thinking that this statistic seems kind of weird to measure. Can it be trusted? The top five in this stat from last season were Patrick Mahomes, Big Ben, Andrew Luck, Brees, and Matt Ryan. Seems fine to me. Ok, so the count against Dak is 0-2. Can we strike him out? Let’s go with old reliable, total Quarterback rating, QBR for short. Dak Prescott ranked 17th last season with a 55.2. There were 33 quarterbacks who qualified for these statistical rankings. Dak was middle of the pack for every single one of them, his best one being Total EPA which was greatly helped from his ability as a runner.
Quarterback is extremely important, maintaining cap flexibility is also extremely important. I don’t know what the Cowboys are going to do, but I know they should absolutely not give Dak $40 million a season. It would make zero sense. My guess is that they will not come to terms and they will franchise tag Dak when the time comes. That franchise tag number should be closer to the $30 million they are willing to give Dak. Prescott will still get paid either way, but is he as big a star as the one on his helmet?
