With the 2020 MLB season rapidly approaching, it’s time for the annual End of the Bench predictions. For added fun this year, we are going to include record projections as well! Today, we focus on the NL Central.
Reds 92-70, NL Central champions
Cardinals 88-74
Cubs 87-75
Brewers 86-76
Pirates 72-90
Call me crazy, but I have high hopes for the Cincinnati Reds in 2020. They’ve added to the lineup with Moustakas and Castellanos who will now join Votto, Suarez, and Winker. Let’s also not forget the young up-and-comers, Nick Senzel and Aristides Aquino, who had a very impressive rookie campaign in 2019. The Reds also added Japanese OF Shogo Akayami who last year in the Japan Pacific League batted .303 with an .864 OPS, 20 home runs and 31 doubles. The pitching staff also has the ability to be one of the most consistent and surprising staffs in the big leagues. Luis Castillo at the top, followed by Sonny Gray who had a bounce back year in 2019, Trevor Bauer and Wade Miley. In the bullpen, they have Amir Garrett and Michael Lorenzen. Hopefully, Raisel Iglesias can rebound after a disappointing 2019. The Reds can be a very good team in 2020 and with the small steps other teams may have taken, I have them as a dark horse to win the NL Central.
The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2019 and although I don’t have them repeating, I still see them as a very good ball club, good enough for a close second place finish. They lost Marcel Ozuna which will hurt them, but they have one of the best 1B in the game in Paul Goldschmidt. Although he had career lows in AVG, SLG and OPS, he still hit 34 home runs; I think 2019 will be an outlier in his career and he will be back to his usual game of close to .300 and OPS of over .900 again this year. Paul DeJong is a good, young SS who was an All Star last year. He is still 26 and will have to take the next step in his career. Kolten Wong is another strong player at 2B who led the team in AVG and was 2nd in OBP and had a career high in OPS with .784. After these three, I see a lot of question marks with guys like Carpenter, Bader, Fowler and Molina. Molina is on the back end of his career behind the plate and entering his final year of his contract. Bader has a lot of potential due to his defense, but his offense needs to step up big time this year. On the pitching side, Jack Flaherty is a dark horse Cy Young candidate entering his age 24 season. Dakota Hudson and Carlos Martinez are another two young arms that St. Louis needs to produce in 2020. After them, you have Mikolas and Wainwright. Wainwright, like Molina is entering his final contract year and is probably at the end of his career.
The Cubs continue to show they are a good ball club and with former beloved player turned first year manager David Ross at the helm, team chemistry will be through the roof. Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras are the forefront of the offense. As is Kris Bryant, but who knows what’s in store for him after his grievance with the Cubs over his service time. It’s very possible he is traded by the All Star break. Until then however, he’s expected to lead off for the Cubbies this season. Jason Heyward will be an X-factor for the Cubs. Hard to believe but he’s only entering his age 30 season and he has underperformed on his contract thus far. He did hit to a .772 OPS with 21 home runs last year. The hope is he builds off of that. On the pitching side, the rotation is led by veterans Jon Lester, Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendriks, followed by Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood. All five have the ability to put up good numbers and it will be key in order to compete.
We know the offense the Brewers have with the former MVP and top player Christian Yelich at the top of that order. They also have the young 2B Keston Hiura, traded for Seattle C Omar Narvaez who had a very good 2019, and signed RF Avisail Garcia who had a strong 2019 with Tampa Bay after missing most of 2018. They also still have the veteran presence of Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun. The downside for the Brewers is they lost Grandal, Moustakas and Thames who were three of their best bats in 2019. Again, it’s not necessarily the offense that worries me with Milwaukee; it’s the pitching. Once again, they entered the offseason with pitching needing to be their primary focus, but they didn’t seem to address it outside of Brett Anderson. They traded away Zach Davies, who made 31 starts last year, and obtained Eric Lauer from the Padres. Heading into this season, Anderson, Lauer, Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser are the potential top 4 of the rotation. Milwaukee hopes that 25 year old Corbin Burnes can come in and make an impact. The bullpen continues to be led by Josh Hader. They released Jeremy Jeffress in September last year and Corey Knebel missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. After Hader, it’s Suter, Peralta and Claudio. Hader is the best in that bullpen but after him, it’s average at best.
The Pirates, like the Marlins in the East, are going to be in the cellar of the Central. With the trading away of Starling Marte, Pittsburgh has officially begun their rebuild. They do have a few good young players on their roster, however. Josh Bell is emerging as a top 1B in the game. He’ll lead the charge offensively. After him, the Buccos also have Kevin Newman, Adam Frazier, Colin Moran and Bryan Reynolds. Gregory Polanco missed all but 42 games in 2019. The Pirates hope that he can come back healthy and produce as many expected him to. The rotation will be led by Joe Musgrove and Chris Archer, followed by Trevor Williams. All in all, the Pirates have a good group of players but in the tough division that is the NL Central, it’s hard to imagine they can outplay the others.
